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IN THE CONTEMPORARY SYSTEM



Over a period of several centuries, the system of many small feudal states under control of the Chou monarchy became transformed into a structure in which power was diffused among several large states. Each state was independent of the others and constantly shifted alliance partners as new threats arose or sub­sided; these temporary alliances were the only form of political unity during the Spring and Autumn period. This structure eventually gave way to one in which power and influence were for the most part concentrated around two blocs or leagues of states. The Greek city-state system similarly changed its structure from one in which power and influence were diffused among a large number of relatively equal units to a configuration in which power accrued to two block leaders. These changes could be linked to economic, social, and cul­tural transformations within the political units, to the change of official myths, and to hostile intervention of outside powers. In feudal China, for instance, the small states on the periphery of the system were relatively independent of the center and able to seize surrounding territory, develop their military capacity, and establish administrative mechanisms adequate to cope with the problems of governing a larger territory and population. When size, military power, and economic welfare became values of importance, the small feudal political units incapable of change were either conquered by more powerful neighbors or lived on as insignificant anachronisms in a Chinese world of large states. We

20 These statements do not refer, of course, to European imperialism, under which many-tribes and petty states in the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and Asia lost their independence to the white man, or to the unification of Germany and Italy.

86 The European and Contemporary State Systems

have similarly examined some recent social and technological developments that helped transform the eighteenth-century continental system of diffuse power and shifting alliances into a worldwide system of the twentieth century, in which, on most issues, the United States and the Soviet Union wield effective power and leadership.

Since any discussion of sources of stability and change in the contempo­rary system is likely to be conjectural and open to debate, great length would be required to support major assertions. Instead of receiving the author's views, readers may wish to speculate on their own—with the assistance of the accompa­nying statements—regarding some of the notable processes, conditions, events, or trends that seem to have important consequences on the global state system. The question is, Which processes, conditions, events, or trends tend to perpetu­ate the postwar patterns of interaction, stratification, or rules, and which ones tend to create a new type of international system? We can call the various factors sources of stability and sources of change. The following tables are certainly not comprehensive", they are designed to stimulate thought and discussion, not to answer questions. The reader can no doubt add other items to these lists.

The problem is that once the sources are identified, it is difficult to be certain about the consequences. In fact, many trends or conditions can have contradictory consequences as far as system change or stability is concerned.

Table 3-3Sources of Stability in the Global System

  CONSEQUENCES FOR PATTERNS OF
PROCESS, CONDITION, INTERACTION, STRATIFICATION,
TREND, OR EVENT OR RULES
1. Costs of developing major nuclear 1. Helps sustain effective military
or military strength polarity.
2. Continued incompatibility 2. Helps sustain major East-West
between communist and liberal phi- dimension of conflict. NATO and
losophies WTO remain major alliance systems
  in world.
3. Soviet-American collaboration to 3. Helps sustain Soviet-American
prevent nuclear proliferation nuclear monopoly and, thus, military
  polarity.
4. Costs of research, development, 4. Sustains dependence of developing
and technological innovation countries on industrial countries; the
  "gap" and asymmetrical interaction
  and dependency patterns persist.
5. Nationalism and desire for ethnic 5. Helps sustain ideology of
unity sovereignty, and political independ-
  ence as a major rule of system.
6. Development of direct 6. Indigenous cultures in Third World
satellite broadcasting face continuous onslaught of Western
  culture and economic values;
  reinforces dependence.

Table 3-4Sources of Change in the Global System

  CONSEQUENCES FOR PATTERNS OF
PROCESS, CONDITION, INTERACTION, STRATIFICATION,
TREND, OR EVENT OR RULES
1. Virulent growth of ethnic nationalism 1. Fragmentation of international system into
  ever-increasing number of small and con-
  ditionally viable states.8
2. Increase in number of small, weak 2. Expanding possibilities for violence and
states, liberation movements, etc. international conflict; some conflicts could
  have major consequences in terms of
  power alignments (e.g., a national libera-
  tion war in South Africa—who would line
  up on which side; costs and conse-
  quences of such a war on African econo-
  mies, etc.).
3. Development of China's economic 3. Breaks down postwar power structure;
and military strength Chinese participation in global issues;
  possible Sino-Soviet war, with great
  consequences on distribution of power in
  international system.
4. Depletion of resources by industrial- 4. Increases power of scarce-resource-
ized countries producing states; reversal of traditional
  dependence between rich and poor—or,
  at least, creation of interdependence.
5. Growth of important nonstate actors 5. Demands for new rules to regulate non-
  state actors and to enhance sovereignty
  of state; decisions having great economic
  consequences on weaker states are
  made by nonstate actors.
6. Growth of Brazil as a major power 6. Decline of U.S. hegemony in Latin Amer-
  ica; new leadership patterns appear in
  Western Hemisphere.
7. Revolutionary ideologies and tech- 7. Increasing vulnerability of states to out-
nological developments side penetration; virtual demise of rule
  against interference in internal affairs.
8. Nuclear proliferation 8. Destroys effective U.S.-Soviet nuclear
  monopoly; possibility of local nuclear
  wars and escalation; effective "gap" be-
  tween military haves and have-nots be-
  gins to narrow.
9. Growing collaboration of developing 9. Declining economic hegemony of !ndus-
countries, demand for reform of in- trial countries; eventually, reduction of
ternational economic system North-South cleavage in the system.

"The potentially disruptive influence of ethnic nationalism is revealed in the following statistics: Among 132 states, only twelve are ethnically homogeneous. In thirty-nine states (30 percent of total), the largest ethnic group does not constitute even a majority of the population. In fifty-three states (40 percent), the population contains more than five significant national groups. See Arnfinn Jorgensen-Dahl, "Forces of Fragmentation in the International System: The Case of Ethno-Nationalism," Orbis, 19 (Summer 1975), 653.

88 The European and Contemporary State Systems

Direct satellite broadcasting will allow the industrial countries, which command the technology, to "reach" directly into the small communities of developing countries, communities that, in many cases, have up to now hardly been aware of an outside world. What will be the consequence? Some would argue that if television becomes an important conveyor of modernization ideas, then self-sustained development may take place and the dependence of the developing countries on the industrial countries will begin to decline. This would be an important change from the structure of interaction and dependence in the con­temporary world. But others would argue that television could be a powerful vehicle for "Westernizing" people in developing countries; they would then want to model themselves on us, and, to the extent that this is not possible, frustration and conflict would ensue. The level of conflict between the "haves" and "have-nots" would thus significantly increase—another change in the charac­teristics of the contemporary system.

Another phenomenon with unknown consequences is nuclear prolifera­tion. Most people assume that the likelihood of nuclear war increases with the number of slates possessing nuclear military capabilities. But it can be argued equally fervently that the possession of awesome nuclear power instills in policy makers a sense of caution they do not have when playing with mere conventional armaments. A government might calculate that the use of conventional arms in a border war would be justified in terms of potential gains and losses. But would that government seriously contemplate the possibility of destroying an entire society for the sake of a few hundred square miles of disputed territory? One could also make the argument that nuclear weapons have become basically irrelevant to international politics except as symbols of status. They have not prevented the outbreak of crises; if they have deterred, they have deterred only the highly improbable—namely, a direct military strike by one major power against the other. The argument would then continue that as governments come to possess these weapons, they will learn that they are basically useless for the vast majority of problems that confront states. A counterargument might be that one should not predict the future on the basis of past Soviet and American behavior. The consequences of nuclear proliferation, therefore, remain prob­lematical.

 




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