EXPLANATIONS OF OBJECTIVES, DECISIONS, AND ACTIONS

Moving from the more general types of foreign-policy outputs to the more specific, we must outline the internal and external conditions that can be linked to objectives, decisions, and actions. It can be argued, of course, that these outputs will normally be consistent with orientations and roles. We could predict, for instance, that a government that often refers to its special responsibilities as a regional leader would take various actions to fulfill this role. It could hold conferences, donate aid to regional partners, provide them with military forces, or generally attempt to dominate the weaker states' diplomacy and perhaps their economic life. Similarly, a government that sees itself as an agent of regional integration would probably undertake various actions aimed at increasing re­gional cooperation. However, roles and orientations by themselves do not neces­sarily determine objectives, decisions, or actions. In Chapter 10, we noted that although the Chinese frequently give assistance to revolutionary movements around the world, they have often refrained from active involvement where such action might create difficulties for their diplomacy. In other words, where there is conflict between immediate "national" interests and the duties deriving

318 Explanations of Foreign-Policy Outputs

from national role conceptions, the former may very well prevail. Also, some governments enunciate inconsistent national roles. In one set of relationships, such a government may portray itself as a faithful ally, while in a broader context it might see itself as a mediator. To the extent that a government has military obligations abroad, normally it would not be a very good candidate for undertak­ing mediating tasks.

Three other reasons underline the need to explore the kinds of variables that influence objectives, decisions, and actions. First, a significant amount of research has explored the making of decisions in crisis situations. Indeed, we know considerably more about the circumstances surrounding crisis and the typical behavior of decision makers in a crisis than we do about roles or orienta­tions. Where there are rapidly unfolding events in the international environment, furthermore, role conceptions can be notoriously irrelevant to the decisions made and the actions taken. Responding to the diplomatic chaos resulting from Hitler's assault on his neighbors, for example, the Soviet government was quite willing to conclude a nonaggression treaty with Germany, thus completely contra­dicting its well-established self-portrayal as a prime anti-Nazi agent.

Second, a large part of foreign policy refers to day-to-day problem solv­ing that is essentially unrelated to role conceptions and orientations. A decision to vote a certain way on a resolution at a conference on the law of the sea does not seem related in any way to the role conceptions or orientations outlined previously.

Finally, it can be demonstrated that two states with similar role concep­tions will not make the same decisions or take the same action when confronted with similar stimuli. Finland's orientation of nonalignment has been followed by active participation in trade and cultural relations with all European states, whereas Burma's similar orientation has led to avoidance of such involvement with states in Southeast Asia.

The starting point for an analysis of the sources of objectives, decisions, and actions is the view that all these outputs are the result of deliberate choices made by government officials. To explain or understand these outputs, then, we must examine the perceptions, images, attitudes, values, and beliefs of those who are responsible for formulating objectives and ordering actions. We may combine the diverse factors that affect choice of objective, decision, or action under the term "definition of the situation."² The definition of the situation would include all external and domestic, historical and contemporary conditions that policy makers consider relevant to any given foreign-policy problem. These might include important events abroad, domestic political needs, social values or ideological imperatives, state of public opinion, availability of capabilities, degree of threat or opportunity perceived in a situation, predicted consequences

² This concept is introduced and discussed in Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck, and Burton Sapin, eds., Foreign Policy Decision Making (New York: Free Press, 1962), pp. 65-68, 80-85. For an application of the concept, see the article by Snyder and Glenn Paige entitled "The United States Decision to Resist Aggression in Korea," in ibid., esp. pp. 239-46.

319Explanations of Foreign-Policy Outputs

and costs of proposed courses of action, and the time element or "requiredness' of a situation. It is difficult to generalize about which factors are most important in each situation, since policy makers seldom draw up careful lists assessing the relative weight of each component of the definition of the situation. But for analytical purposes, we can break down the components of any definition of a situation and examine those conditions in the external and domestic environ­ments that are usually considered relevant in formulation of objectives and ac­tions.

In this chapter, we will reverse the levels of analysis, starting with individ­ual policy makers, working our way through various societal and national attri­butes, and ending with events and conditions in the international system. The following discussion will try to demonstrate actual or hypothetical links between objectives and actions (the dependent variables) and (1) the images, values, beliefs, personality characteristics, and political needs of those individuals re­sponsible for establishing goals, priorities among them, and actions needed to achieve them; (2) domestic structures—the influence of bureaucracies, national needs, and attributes; and (3) events and conditions in the external environment. Some other components particularly relevant to policy making, such as percep­tions of threat, degree of urgency, and perceptions of alternatives, were already considered in Chapter 11, where policy making in crisis situations was discussed.

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